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International Occultation Timing Association European Section |
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NEW PREDICTION UPDATE (29th of Nov 2009)
A new prediction has been made by Bruno Sicardy and the RIO team with new calculations of the distortions in the images from the 2.2m telescope at ESO. This shifts the track a even more southward. I think, we can more and more be sure, that the event can be seen from Europe!
Here you can see the old prediction:
The occultation track as predicted by B. Sicardy based on data from the Rio de Janeiro group.

If you compare the path of Pluto's shadow, you see a discrepancy compared to the IOTA-ES prediction about a year ago, which is presented in the following graph:

The IOTA-ES prediction, which is also based on an offset, determined from recent occultation measurements from the European Group (B. Sicardy, IOTA-ES, and others) sees the shadow off earth. The reason seems to be mostly in the different stellar position, which has difference of about 220 mas compared with the position of the Rio group. Therefore we assume, that the UCAC2 position (which is the entrance value for the IOTA-ES prediction) is in error for that particular star (about 220 mas). Because the measurements of the Rio group are real determinations of the positions with high accuracy, we believe, that the upper one prediction is the best, as we can get in the moment.
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